12 June 2009, Iran held its presidential election. The result being that Mir Hossein Mousavi garnered the majority of the votes. Unfortunately for Mousavi, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had called the election prior to the tally of the votes and instead, heralded Mahmud Ahmedminijad, the current president, the victor. Not only was Ahmedminijad not the true victor, but he lost in a landslide to Mousavi.
When dissent began to ring throughout Iran, the Ayatollah made matters worst by ordaining Ahmedminijad the victor. His presumption being that the Iranian people would accept Ahmedminijad as their re-elected president if God had wanted it to be so. This was not the case. The people of Iran did not fall for the Ayatollah’s ploy, and thus, took to the streets in a fashion reminiscent of the events that led to Iran’s 1979 revolution.
The current situation in Iran is quite ironic and reads like a Shakespearian play. Most people are not aware that the President of Iran has little to no power. All of his actions are vetted through and approved by the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The president controls things like taxes, but when it comes to national policy and international relations, nothing he does or says occurs without the Ayatollah’s seal of approval. The President of Iran is nothing more than a glorified administrator – a mouthpiece and puppet of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The irony behind the entire situation is that if the Ayatollah would have simply allowed the presidential election to move unhindered, without his interference, and given the Iranian people the one respective liberty that they have, he would not have had any problems; the status quo would have been maintained. Instead, the Ayatollah Khamenei interfered, believing that the people would go along with his selection, despite the election results, and now, he has a mess on his hands.
As soon as the Ayatollah Khamenei attempted to ordain Ahmedminijad the victor, Iranians by the thousands took to the streets in protest. They suffered arrest, beatings, and death to express their desire for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. In conjunction, thousands around the world held numerous rallies supporting the Iranians in their struggle.
In truth, the Iranian people stand alone. They are at a precipice: a turning point which will determine the future direction of their country. The Iranian people, if they truly desire life, liberty, and happiness, must place the burden on their shoulders and make that change happen themselves. Their neighbors in the region are not going to help. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Syria are shaking in their boots: their leaders –biting their nails in anticipation of what happens next. If the people of Iran do overthrow their government, as they did 30 years ago, look for the above countries to clamp down on their citizens’ civil liberties out of the fear that they will rise up, as well.
The overthrow of Iran’s government is inevitable, but the current situation has further increased the people’s pace down the path of freedom. That being said, though I pray that the Iranian people do overthrow their government soon, they ought not hold up Mousavi as their leader or symbol of the movement. For those who are not aware, Mousavi was the Prime Minister of Iran when, in 18 April 1983, the US embassy in Beirut, Lebanon was attacked by a suicide bomber, killing 63 people. The attack on the US embassy could not have occurred without, at a minimum, Mousavi knowing about it, and to the extreme, him calling for it.
Prior to 12 June, the Iranian government held most of the cards with respect to US and international relations. Since the coalition’s arrival in Iraq, the Iranian government held a strong influence over the Iraqi expats who had exiled themselves in Iran during Saddam Hussein’s regime and Muqtadr Al Sadr and his Mahdi “army”. Iran’s Qod Force trained Iraqis on how to build IEDs and guerilla tactics. Iran’s goal: to disrupt positive US action in creating a free Democracy in the Middle East. Now that Iran has serious internal strife, it is unable to focus as many resources towards causing trouble in Iraq.
At the same time, and for many years, Iran has sponsored terrorist groups and activities around the world. Iran has been using the Palestinian issue as its excuse to stir up trouble in the region, through its support of Hezbollah.
Iran’s nuclear situation is quite complex and not a simple problem to solve. It makes the rubics cube look easy. As of 14 July, Germany’s BND intelligence agency estimated that Iran will have the capability to create and test a nuclear bomb in six months.
The problem we face with Iran having a nuclear weapon is three fold: Isreal’s reaction to Iran having nuclear capability and two actions on Iran’s part.
Israel has stated time and again that it will attack Iran if it believes that Iran has nuclear capability. If Israel stays true to its word, and Iran successfully tests a nuclear warhead, then there is a strong likelihood that Israel will attack Iran. They will more than likely attack through the air and utilize its naval assets in the Persian Gulf. When Israel attacks, Iran will retaliate in one of two ways: direct or indirect.
Indirect, Iran would have Hezbollah attack Israel from the north and stir up violence in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Israel’s major cities; thus, ushering in another Intifada. Once this action occurs, it is unknown how far the violence will spread: whether it will spark another civil war in Lebanon or create Palestinian unrest in Jordan. Maybe both.
Direct, though highly unlikely, Iran would attack Israel from the air using its missile capability. Iran will not attack using its air assets because that is sure defeat. Israel’s air force is far superior to Iran’s and Iran knows it, having fought against them in the Iran-Iraq War (a little unknown fact that we can discuss at another time). Since Iran will have nuclear capability, it is probable that it will use it as the ammunition.
The most plausible means in which Iran will execute an attack utilizing its nuclear capability will be to “farm it out” to its various terrorist networks around the world. I foresee the simultaneous detonation of “mini” nuclear devices in major cities throughout the world: a device similar to that depicted in Tom Clancy’s Sum of All Fears. I do not believe I need to stress the retaliation which would ensue if such an attack were to occur.
The paradox we face with the Iranian nuclear issue is that there is nothing no country on this planet can do to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear bomb capability. For over a decade the US and western Europe have gone through a series of negotiations with Iran to get it to stop, yet to no avail. Currently, France is leading the charge, and President Obama, up until 12 June, was willing to work with Iran to reach a reasonable solution.The US military option is not reasonable for two reasons: 1, the US is tied up in Afghanistan and Iraq, and 2, even if the US military were not already overextended, the level of support we would attain would be dismal: the reason being that the US military far eclipses the second largest military in the world- Great Britain. To use the military option to cease Iran’s nuclear activities would mean to go to war: something no politician is willing (thank goodness) to commit our country to.
