President Hamid Karzai’s latest series of tirades of his threatening to side with the Taliban stems from two areas: the means in which Karzai was able to position himself to attain power and the realities on the ground- the two of which are interconnected.

Afghanistan exists in two general societies: the tribal system and the warlords. In some regions and under particular situations, the two are one and the same, depending on the tribal leader. At other times, the two are at odds.  During the fight against the Soviets during the late 70s to early 80s, Hamid Karzai was one of the CIA’s primary points of contact. He was able to travel amongst the tribes and the warlords. His ability to work both groups enabled our success in pushing the Soviets out of Afghanistan.

The Taliban is nothing more than the Mujah Adeen on a new mission. Instead of expelling Soviets, they are fighting to get Americans out of their country. Karzai is extremely familiar with the Taliban. He knows who they are, how they act, and why they act. To we Americans, Karzai’s threatening to side with the Taliban is abhorrent, but if you consider that he truly knows the enemy much more intimately than we, then his actions are not as out of character as they appear.

The reality on the ground is such that if the Afghans want any semblance of peace and the US ever wants to redeploy in the foreseeable future, then incorporating the Taliban into the government is inevitable. Because the US is not fighting an absolute war in Afghanistan, the ROE hinders our service members from truly being able to identify the enemy, and thus, making contact with, closing, and killing him.  We can deter and minimize the Taliban’s actions, but we will never defeat them.

A positive in all of this is Pakistan. Contrary to what political pundits and so-called national security experts have been saying over the past two years, Pakistan is our best friend in that region. Why? Because Pakistan has the most to lose if the Paki-Taliban succeeds. The last thing the Pakistani military leadership is going to allow is for the Taliban to take over their country. They gave Bhutto’s husband the opportunity to lead, which he failed at miserably, as I had predicted he would, and now they have retaken the reins of power and are fighting the Taliban head on. Bhutto’s husband probably will not fall the same fate as his father-in-law or wife (execution and exile, respectively) because two years ago he unofficially abdicated his authority over key matters.

In my last piece about Afghanistan, when GEN McCrystal presented his plan to the POTUS, I stressed that the key to our success and the unknown variable lies in the success of the Karzai Administration. Today, my presumption is even truer than before. If Karzai can successfully reign in the Afghan Taliban and re-incorporate them back into society, while Pakistan fights the Paki-Taliban (Al Qaeda supporters), then we all may garner an acceptable end-state.

DISCLAIMER: Now, if Karzai does decide to go all in with the Taliban, then that is another matter all together. If this occurs, which I doubt, then Karzai has just given NATO a reason to pull its forces out entirely. For the sake of the Afghan people, I pray that Karzai does not follow through with his rhetoric.