As I had predicted, and what was the best outcome for Iraq, Iyad Allawi was elected as Iraq’s next Prime Minister, or is he? Though Allawi won with the most votes cast in his favor, he did not receive over 50% of the votes; thus, his becoming prime minister is not inevitable. Because Iraq functions on a parliamentarian system, the three major Iraqi parties are now vying for control of parliament: i.e. they are attempting to form coalitions that will garner the majority of votes, thus, enabling the victor of this round of “fighting” to select Iraq’s next Prime Minister.

Allawi, for those unfamiliar with him, was Iraq’s first prime minister: 28 May 2004 – 7 April 2005. Most importantly, he is a secularist, which means that he does not believe that the religious establishment should rule the country…though the Iraqi Constitution is bound by Sharia law, but that is another issue. If I had to choose, I would select Allawi as Iraq’s next prime minister, but for other reasons that I cannot share on-line.

Other than Allawi, the other front-runner is current prime minister Nouri Maliki. He is doing his best to secure enough votes from the Shia’a political parties. Maliki’s problem though, is that Muqtadr al Sadr will not throw his support behind him, due to their falling out a few years ago over Maliki pro-US stance.

Muqtadr is smartly staying out of this direct fight, choosing instead to act in a much more strategic manner. Currently, a cousin of Muqtadr’s, Jaafar Baqir al Sadr, the son of Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir Sadr who was martyred by Saddam  Hussein in 1980, is being seriously considered. Jaafar, who was one of thousands whom Maliki had placed on his State of Law list, is in a serious position to garner the support of the soon-to-be established Shai’a coalition; thus, becoming Iraq’s next prime minister: knocking out both Allawi, but more importantly, Malaki.

Though I would prefer Allawi as prime minister, looking at Jaafar’s record and background, I have much more confidence in his ability, focus, and vision for Iraq than I ever had with Maliki, who was nothing more than an opportunist and a demagogue-in-training. Though Jaafar himself is an ayatollah, he is a secularist- believing that religious establishments have no place in running a government. Jaafar seems sincere when discussing civil liberties for all and having a strong strategic relationship with the United States.

I am curious as to how Malaki is going to react once his coalition building attempts fail and he is no longer a real political player. Will he call upon his part of the army that was under his command to initiate a coup so that he may retain his position? If called upon, will the army actually act? I doubt it, but anything is possible in Iraq.

Iraq’s parliament selecting its next prime minister is the easy part. What is going to be difficult is the REAL transition of authority to the Iraqi government, beginning summer 2011. As you have seen in recent reports, al Qaeda has stepped up its attacks due to this date. If al Qaeda were smart, it would wait until we left, but suicide bombers are not selected because of their high aptitude.  

The other variable at play here, are the Khurds. They are just waiting for the right moment to act upon their intentions. All of the separatist and anti-US groups ought to pay attention and take copious notes as to how the Khurdish government operates because they are playing the best game of possum in the history of world affairs. Our government has always known of the Khurds seeking autonomy; it’s common knowledge.

Once we pull out of Iraq and the country begins to go to hell with al Qaeda, the duly elected government, and the Shia’a conservatives fighting it out amongst themselves, Khurdistan will declare its independence due to the Iraqi government’s inability to uphold and defend the rule of law. The Iraqi army stationed in the Khurdistan region is already dutifully loyal to that aspect of the government, so having military protection already exists. Khurdistan's economy is flourishing in vast means, outside of oil and natural gas. Keep your eye on the Khurds. It’s like the old people say; “It’s the quiet ones you have to worry about.”